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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd