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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still